WHAT THE VAL: Denver's Adventures In Chicken

What a weird plot twist for a backup center

Photo by Vidi Drone on Unsplash

It was too good to be true, obviously.

When the Nuggets traded for Jonas Valanciunas on the second day of free agency, it was perfect. They had dumped Dario Saric by using the trade exception acquired in the Michael Porter Jr. deal to make up the difference in Dario’s salary and JV’s.

It solved the backup center issue. It gave them a reasonable Jokic duplicate in terms of running DHOs and the types of shots he creates. It provided a higher-floor drop-coverage big. It cost them no assets. It solved the problem for two seasons, and if it didn’t work, the second season was non-guaranteed.

It was perfect. So, of course, it had to fall apart.

Then reports started to surface that Valanciunas was “very interested” or “seriously interested” or whatever adverbs you wanted to use about an offer from Grecian Panathinaikos B.C. Enough to where he was intent on leaving.

Valanciunas flew all the way to Greece on Saturday to meet with officials.

Except… well, it’s not that simple. Let’s do a Q&A and then figure out what happens from here.

CAN JV JUST BAIL?!

No. To play for Panathinaikos, he must receive a FIBA letter of clearance. He can’t get that unless the Nuggets waive him, buy him out, or agree to sign it, which they won’t do. FIBA has structures in place to ensure that players aren’t just welching on NBA contracts; it’s a make-good with the NBA, which is nice of them.¹

SO WHAT HAPPENS IF THE NUGGETS DO THOSE THINGS?

Here’s how it works.

Waive without buyout: JV makes the $10.4 million he’s owed this year, and the $10.4 million sits as dead cap space on Denver’s books. His 2026-27 $10 million is non-guaranteed. This is not happening. This just gives JV an extra $10 million to leave his contract and hurts Denver’s books this season (which makes it harder to add players).

Buyout: Valanciunas agrees to give back some portion, or most likely all, of his contract, and then, upon waiver, it’s no harm, no foul. He gets to leave and enjoy the Greek beaches, and the Nuggets clear their $10 million, which opens up more space for them to use, including the $14 million Mid-Level Exception.

If JV doesn’t agree to a complete buyout — which would be hilarious² — then whatever is remaining goes on Denver’s cap. If he agrees to give up the $8 million, the remaining $2 million plus would go on Denver’s cap for the season as dead money.

WHAT IF DENVER DOESN’T DO EITHER OF THOSE THINGS?

Well, then, JV is stuck. Without the FIBA letter of clearance, he can’t play for Panathinaikos. He can’t get the letter of clearance without resolving his NBA contract.

If the Nuggets just simply refuse to buy him out or waive him, he doesn’t have alternatives other than staging a sit-out.

If he wants to go this route, he can just… not show. He can simply refuse to honor the terms of his contract, which would leave him subject to fines and potential civil action from Denver for breach of contract. It won’t go that far. It’s not worth it for anyone to go that route.

But JV can basically throw a fit and make it so uncomfortable for Denver that Denver eventually relents and lets him out.

This is the chicken part. Denver doesn’t want to deal with the distraction and dead cap space of JV not being around. Valanciunas would not only not be betting the Panathinaikos contract money, he’d be paying fines and losing his NBA salary for the season.

Who bends?

WHY DOESN’T DENVER JUST PLAY HARDBALL?

They are reportedly doing just that, maintaining that they will not agree to a buyout and trying to persuade JV to at least give them a year.

I have no reporting to offer on this, I wish I did, but I don’t.

As to why they wouldn’t just do this? This is a pretty classic “Is the principle worth the pain?” question.