The Miracle At The Wall And A 2-2 Series: Denver's Back From The Dead

You better bury 'em deep or...

First off, Aaron Gordon is a winning player and a bad MFer who makes winning plays. Now that we’ve got that out of the way…

I wasn’t able to finish the newsletter before Game 3. Here’s what I began that newsletter with on Friday night:

I don’t have much good news or optimism to share in the light of Game 3.

Denver has typically bounced back in situations like this. Jokic and the Nuggets are 6-3 after two losses in the playoffs. It’s entirely possible that they just play better, make more shots, and find a way to win Game 4 to even the series, reclaiming home court.

But teams that go up 2-1 when they didn’t start with homecourt in the first round have won 59% of the time. That’s not bad compared to other rounds and if you have homecourt (better than 90%). You’d probably take the Nuggets if I said it was 60/40 Clippers.

The bigger problem is that Denver is out of options here. They can’t play someone more or fewer minutes. The rotation is eight games max, and two of them (Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook) are injured and may not play in Game 4.

The adjustment is “play better.”

They have to play with better urgency and physicality. They hit first in Game 3 but once the Clippers hit back in the non-starter minutes, the entire thing fell apart.

Well, they made more shots, Joker had a great game, Aaron Gordon made THE PUTBACK and Denver evened the series.

After the Game 4 win, I make the series odds:

Clippers 52%

Nuggets 48%

They’ve retaken homecourt, which is a massive. Teams that win Game 5 in the first round in a 3-2 series when they have Game 7 at home have won the series 96% of the time. Teams that lost Game 5 in the first round have won only 26% of the time. So yes, winning Game 5 would be a big deal.¹

This series has been incredible, and with what the Nuggets are up against with a short rotation, it’s all the more impressive that they’ve battled their way to two wins.

But I’m comfortable saying that the Clippers are the better overall team at this point. They have better depth, a better second star (no matter which one that is night to night), more versatility, and a better defense.

The trick, though, is that Denver in these playoffs were never going to be the better team. I could have told you that back in October if you’d told me they were the 4-seed. You don’t have to be the better team between two teams in a series, despite what people think after.

You have to be the better team in that series which means you have to make the plays. And Denver’s made the plays to even the series.

I am neither confident nor optimistic about Denver’s chances of making it out of this series, just so they can walk into the thresher of OKC. But I said it on the show after the game:

“You’re only putting these dudes in the grave when you’ve got the dirt on top.”

My thought before the series was that Jokic was good for two wins, Kawhi was good for 1.5 wins, and the Clippers’ defense was good for 0.5 wins. I’d say we’ve gotten one great Kawhi game (Game 2), one great Jokic game (Game 4). Which means we’re due for another great Kawhi half and another great Jokic game.

After that is anyone’s guess.

Some more thoughts on the series…

VARIATION FAILURE

Here’s a stat.

Nikola Jokic has been off-court in this series for 28 minutes across the three games. The Nuggets have been outscored by 27 points in those 28 minutes.

Jamal Murry has been off-court in this series for 28 minutes. The Nuggets have been outscored by 43 points in those 28 minutes.

They’ve been worse without Murray than without Jokic in this series.

That’s not a reflection of how Murray and Jokic have played; neither has been great by their playoff standards until Game 4, neither has been terrible by their playoff standards.

But the staggered lineups, which were so good with Christian Braun off the bench in recent years, have gone to pot.

The Nuggets have to win the Jokic minutes. They have zero shot if they are anything short of +4 in Jokic’s minutes. You can’t expect them to win the non-Jokic minutes.

Murray’s best game was Game 3, a Clippers blowout. Jamal having his best game when the Nuggets didn’t give him a chance to be the difference and then having his worst game in Game 4 when the Nuggets wound up winning anyway is very apt for Jamal’s recent Nuggets career.

But it’s important to note here that the late-first lineups without Jamal have been the issue. Adelman has switched to basically finishing the 3rd with the starters; the starters all logged over 40 minutes which is both necessary and unsustainable.²

To prove the point, the Nuggets have a 97 offensive rating in the final four minutes of the 1st quarter in this series, which includes Jokic on the floor and Murray staggering. They have lost those minutes by about 1.5 points per possession, which is a lot.

In the third, with Adelman playing starters mostly through (Gordon sat to end the third, MPJ had a small rest late 3rd), the Nuggets have had a 137 offensive rating and won those final four minutes of the 3rd by 6.2 points per possession.³

I don’t know what the answer is to how bad they are in the stagger other than play the starters 48 minutes, but God almighy does Denver need someone to give them something off the bench.