The Crucible: Denver's Month Without Nikola Jokic
Projections, explanations, predictions, and all of them perilous
It’s not great, but it could be worse.
Nikola Jokic is out at least four weeks with a hyperextended knee. He avoided tearing anything (MCL, ACL, PCL, FML, etc.). It could have been the season and that would obviously have been the end of days.
The timing is less than ideal.
This is the densest month of the Nuggets’ schedule. They play the most games this month.
I’m on record with the following predictions:
Joker comes back before the re-evaluation date, returning in 3.5 weeks
The Nuggets go 5-7 in the twelve games he misses
The Nuggets finish in the 4-5 matchup as a result.
That’s of course an optimistic view of things. I’m basing it on my resolve that Joker is simply #builtdifferent. I’ve never seen a more reliable star player in the modern era, who just plays every game. Wrist hurts? Plays game, hits 3-of-4 from 3. Twisted an ankle? 30-point triple-double.
Much of this, I think, can be ascribed to Serbian values. Eastern Europeans do not have the attachment to comfort of their Western counterparts; that region knows a thing or two about discomfort for both themselves and their enemies.
It’s just not going to surprise me at all if Joker gets to week three and says “I think I’ll play” and the staff says “No, we need to give it time” and he says “No, I feel good, I will play tonight” and then drops a 30-point triple-double. I’m not sure the ramp up time will be the same as for other players. 1
It could be, though, for sure, and it could carry him all the way to All-Star. If you want to be a pessimist, that’s the angle here. Four weeks to be re-evaluated, two weeks for ramp up, misses All-Star, returns in the game after with an extra week.
In that scenario, it’s not 12 games, it’s 25. When the calendar flips to February, that’s when things take a turn. Via Positive Residual:
OKC: loss
Detroit: loss
Knicks: loss
The rest of those are coin flips but those three games could be devastating for Denver’s playoff seeding.
However, for now, let’s give him the four weeks exactly, returning for the home game against Detroit on January 27th, and missing 14 games.
So it’s a lot of games.
The trick, though, with the NBA regular season is not to think about games in terms of wins and losses but win probability.
Christian Braun likely returns between this week and next. Let’s put his return date as vs. the Celtics on the 7th. Here’s Denver’s win probability for those games based on that2:
Cleveland: 25.02%
Brooklyn: 36.12%3
Philly (back-to-back, assuming everyone plays for both teams): 24.79%
Their estimated wins there is 0.85, a little under a win.
Not a great start. So CB comes back against Boston. Now we look to AG who is probably not far behind.
Boston: 7.7%
Atlanta at home: 29%
OK. Now AG comes back for the second night of the back-to-back against the Bucks.
Bucks: 41%
Pelicans: 44.61%
Mavericks (back-to-back, assuming everyone plays): 55%4
Wizards: 70.16%
Hornets (back-to-back, assuming everyone plays): 51.84%
Lakers: 29.94%
Wizards: 70.64%
Bucks (back-to-back, assuming everyone plays): 29.51%
Grizzlies: 43.96%
Joker returns on the 27th at home against the Pistons, along with Cam Johnson. If Johnson comes back before then, the numbers go up.
