Clippers-Nuggets And The Cost Of Error

Important things about Denver's first-round series

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Welcome back after five long years to Nuggets-Clippers.

The Nuggets are going to be underdogs in this series. They opened as the betting favorites but the market quickly decided that was ridiculous and bet LA all the way down to a favorite at some books.

That’s fine, Denver’s better when they’re overlooked.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Denver here, honestly. No playoff team has ever fired its coach this close to the postseason. The team played better to finish the season, with the 15th-ranked defense (113.9 which on the season would be great).

Fired coach bounce? A team resolving to buckle down? Playing the Kings, the Grizzlies on a back-to-back, and a Rockets team with nothing to play for?

Who knows?

What is evident is that the Clippers are not the team Denver faced earlier this season and split (thanks to an extra game provided by the In-Season Tournament).

The Clippers are 26-11 with Kawhi in the lineup this season. With him on the court, the Clippers have a +11.8 net rating in non-garbage time. They kill teams. Since Kawhi returned, they have the fourth-best net rating overall and sixth-best record, which includes games he didn’t play in.

It is largely indisputable that this version of the Clippers is better than Denver under the widest breadth of examination.

But of course, to win a playoff series, you need to be the best team in that series.

Instead of breaking this down in the usual offense/defense ways, I’m going to focus on the most important things.

JOKER AND THE THREE OF CLUBS

Jokic averaged the third-most three-point attempts per game against the Clippers of any opponent Denver faced this year.

The reason? Zubac.

Those all seem like great numbers, right? Except Joker’s TS% is 66% this season. Jokic shot 55% from 2-point range against the Clippers this season, compared to 63% on the season.

I’m not here telling you Zubac is a Joker stopper; I’m not a moron. Joker missed bunnies galore in their regular-season matchups to create those numbers and many of them were offensive rebound misses. Joker figures everyone out eventually.

However, the Clippers are going to want to pack the paint and send help to make Denver’s non-shooting roster shoot threes. Guys like Aaron Gordon and Braun and Westbrook are going to have to hit some open looks, but a great way to not have to take those shots is to open up the interior by forcing Zubac out of it with Jokic’s threes. Zu still doesn’t want to guard Jokic out there, and Joker shot over 40% from three this season.

If he hits those threes, then Zu has to come out to guard him. If he comes out to guard him, the others can cut against Norman Powell, Harden, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Jokic can also drive against Zubac to get him further in foul trouble.

Jokic needs to hit his threes.

BRAUN AND BRAINS (I KNOW IT’S NOT PRONOUNCED THAT WAY)

So what does that look like exactly, if Joker hits his threes and Zu has to come up? Watch these two plays and the shots Christian Braun gets.

I think Christian’s in for a huge series. Kawhi’s likely to guard Gordon, and if not him, then Michael Porter Jr. so he can roam. Dunn takes Murray. That puts Harden or Powell on Braun.

This Clippers defense is not vicious. It’s not a phalanx of pterodactyls like OKC or a pack of, well, wolves like Minnesota. It’s just very disciplined and well coached with good physicality and extra effort.

But individually, Harden and Powell are weak spots. If the Nuggets can’t take advantage of them, they’re going to be in trouble because the Clippers will definitely take advantage of Denver’s weak links.

ICE, ICE, HARDEN?

Let’s hear from my Locked on Nuggets cohost Ryan Blackburn on how the Nuggets will defend James Harden.

Harden was someone the Nuggets respected a lot, and they doubled him and hedged high up the floor consistently, forcing weak-side defensive rotations that just weren’t very good. They did lock in a bit on Harden’s passing, allowing 9.3 assists but forcing 6.5 turnovers per game across those same four matchups. Denver can absolutely live with that if their defense is active and flying around. If it’s not, Harden will pick them apart.

I know a lot about Harden’s game. The two most dangerous things from him are what I call his narco-dribble where he lulls you to sleep with a slow dribble while he drifts subtly so he can get to his left.

And his pick and roll game. The Nugget’s base coverage isn’t going to work against Harden unless Joker absolutely sells out. On the two plays in the clip below, Joker plays a soft at-level coverage and then a high drop. The corner man has to crash down on Zu and that leaves a wide open corner three.

That shot, right there, is what kills Denver over and over.

If Joker engages at the level and really challenges Harden, they can execute that better. Joker’s effort at the level waned a lot this season. This is an execution issue, not a scheme one.

However, drop has its advantages, especially if the Nuggets ice¹ the pick and roll.

AG pushes him away from the screen, Russ can help down and even though Harden gets to that corner pass, CB can pick it off as the high man.

Never mind the traveling violation, just the way the Nuggets are able to stop this sequence and force the reset is a win. Make someone else beat you. Of course, that might be Kawhi Leonard now, but cross that unholy bridge when you get to it.

You can especially play drop with Watson getting over the screen. He did a great job of it. Just recover and stay on Harden’s hip.

Now, the problem with drop is when they do get a clean screen on you:

Yeah, try and not have that happen.

DON’T TURN THE DAMN BALL OVER

Denver is 81-28 since 2022-23 (with Murray and Porter back) when they have fewer turnovers than their opponents, including 11-2 in the playoffs.

Think about that. 11-2.

It’s painfully, disgustingly simple: when the Nuggets don’t turn the ball over, they win. Their offense is too good. Turnovers are double-edged blades against them. They take away an offensive possession and add a transition defensive possession. Both of those are bad.

Denver averages 9.8 opponent steals per 100 possessions, second-worst among playoff teams behind… the Clippers.

The Nuggets’ advantage in this series is on the offensive side. They need their possessions. They need to not give the Clippers easy ones.

RUSSELL WESTBROOK HAS TO CALM THE HELL DOWN

I try and be the balance on the scale of Westbrook. I am not a blind stan that ignores his repeated shortcomings in terms of adapting to the NBA and what it needs from him in the back half of his career, I am not a hater that despises him because he’s not among the efficiency darlings.

I’ve also covered enough Thunder games and playoff series up close to know a few things about his tendencies, and one of them is that he gets emotionally ramped up.