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Is Denver's ceiling still Mile High?

Photo by USGS on Unsplash

We’re three weeks away from the playoffs, and I believe Denver can lose in the first round or make the Finals.

I know how low their floor is: it’s subterranean. They can lose to anyone.¹ When they don’t get back in transition, when they don’t fight through screens, when they fall asleep in their rotations, their defensive floor is the lowest of anyone.

I’ve cited this stat before, but I want to bring it back up: they are 28th in defensive rating in their wins and 29th in defensive rating in their losses. When the bottom-feeders win, they defend better than Denver, and when the elite teams lose, they defend better than Denver.

What I honestly don’t know is their ceiling.

START THEM UP

This is the starter’s offensive shot chart:

That’s so much red (which is good). Jokic usually posts to the left side of this chart (right facing basket). So that left corner is still generating great looks out of the reversal and two-man game.

Jamal Murray is creating most of those above the break right side (left facing basket) threes:

That’s maybe the most encouraging thing about Denver’s ceiling: Murray looks like himself.² I would honestly put the last three months of games up against any stretch of his career just as I would put his first two months up against the worst two months of any stretch of his career.

Denver's starters’ offense last year had a 125.9 offensive rating. This year, it’s 124.6. The defensive rating is about two points worse. So no, they are not as good as last year, as if I had to tell you that.

But here’s the thing: Denver’s starters are still elite. Among lineups with 20 games played and 300 minutes, the list for net rating is the Thunder starters (obviously), two Pacers lineups, and then Denver at +10.2. They beat teams by 10.2 points for every 100 possessions played.

These are the majority of the minutes in the playoffs. It’s not just that the starters will play more; they’ll play more together. Everyone wanted Denver to play more lineups this season: they have. But now it’s time to play the five-best together, and those five are still really good together, even with all the warts.