Why Inconsistency Is Killing The Nuggets
And Joker can't stand it.
Lose to the Wizards.
Beat the Thunder.
Lose to the Blazers.
Beat the Mavericks.
Go to OT with the Pelicans and Raptors.
Blow out the Suns.
Get beat by the Suns two days later.
Who is this team?! How can the Nuggets have the best player in the world, look dominant and like a West force to be reckoned with one minute and then a hapless mess the next?
This chart shows point differential vs. teams with a top-10, middle-10 and bottom-10 point differential this season, via Cleaning The Glass. (Data through Sunday 12/22.)
Denver has the 8th-best point differential against elite teams, and the 19th-best point differential against the worst teams. They are also elite vs. the middle.
They have more losses to teams under .500 than they had all of last year.
This is why this season feels so much worse than last year despite the records being similar to the last two seasons.
After 28 games…
Denver 2022-23: 17-11
Denver 2023-24: 18-10
Denver 2024-25: 16-12
I’m not sharing that to say “See? It’s fine! Everything’s great!” It doesn’t feel that way. It feels like the team is a little lost and a little disconnected, Joker’s frustrated, and a trade could happen at any moment. None of that is changed by the record’s comparison to the past two years.
But it reinforces what I’ve said on Locked on Nuggets; they’re not falling behind or apart. I said before the season if the team got out to a 5-12 start, Malone’s seat would be hot. But they never spiraled. Every time the season’s started to get away from them, they’ve responded.
Behind that 16-12 record is the data above that says Denver is inherently inconsistent.
That inconsistency is why Jokic looks so frustrated. Jokic can handle losses. Wins and losses don’t move him much, but the team being wildly different game to game in terms of their performance and execution drives him crazy. Not making the right plays which they have shown they can drives him nuts.
This is speculative on my part, but I don’t think Jokic looks around and goes “I need a superstar talent.” I think if they add a superstar talent that doesn’t help the team play better, he’s still going to be frustrated. Great players making great plays is exciting and would help, but it wouldn’t fix the underlying issue.
That’s why I’ve advocated so much for trades that add multiple role players instead of one star. Yes, it’s frustrating to see Jokic play without another All-Star while other players do. But if this team is going to be built so much around Jokic — and why not — then getting different types of teams around him that are better and more consistent is more important than a 40-point scorer.
The Christmas loss to the Suns was predictable. They just beat them on Monday and then played them in Phoenix. Even more than that, though, is that you can’t expect Denver to beat a team with a pulse twice.
Denver’s better than the teams they’re losing to this team, but they can’t find the ability to play game to game, week to week at the same level. That’s not a huge problem when the playoffs come.
Getting there, however, becomes like trying to make it out of a desert without going in a straight line. It just makes it harder than it has to be.