Why I Take Nikola Jokić At His Word
"I don't know, brother"
I’ve struggled with what Nuggets fans need to know this summer.
I could write about the exhaustive Peyton Watson restricted free agency ordeal, how most of what’s been reported is negotiation, how the second apron impacts things, how I still think the Nuggets retain Watson and why or how.
Grace did an excellent job with the dynamics involving the Spencer Jones deal and how it impacts Watson:
I could (and will) write about Alpha Diallo and why I’m suddenly very high on his capacity as an NBA-level defender. I’ll get to that. I can write about Marvin Bagley, a guy who I’ve advocated for for years on bad teams who I think can really contribute, if only at an 8th-man level.
I could write about the new practice facility in the wake of the Wynkoop Crossing finally getting approved (after I put in the work of scanning dozens of city application records, cool, thanks for that, city).
But in any national conversation, I get asked about one thing. And in the background of any Nuggets fan fatalism, there’s only one topic that really resonates.
Is Joker going to leave?
Nikola Jokić will not sign his extension this summer. That’s been revealed and the absence of his signature when the contract came available is proof. He’s going to wait until next summer and sign. There are all sorts of reasons for this, including lining up his last contract at this one’s expiration before the CBA’s over-38 rule kicks in and ensuring the most guaranteed money.
Some believe it’s Joker’s way of putting pressure on the organization to spend and improve the roster towards contention.
I do not.
Jokić’s position the entire time has been that those decisions are not his to make. He doesn’t make decisions on coaching; he was never asked whether the Nuggets should fire Michael Malone, nor was he asked who they should hire last summer. He doesn’t make decisions on the roster. There are players he likes playing with more than others; those things are easy to tell by paying attention, but he would never weigh in on another player’s contract.
Rule No.1 in the NBA: You don’t fuck with the money.
Now, Joker can act that way and still use his prospective free agency to ensure the team delivers on their promise to build a contender around him. Many stars do this.
But everything about Jokić suggests that approach is anathemic to him. When we talk about how this is a job to Joker, that comes not just with negative connotations but positive ones as well. He is not invested in glory, but he’s dedicated to his job. He takes it seriously; he’s a professional.
This next part is deductive — I haven’t asked him this — but I believe that this extends to his extension/re-signing decision. He’ll do what’s best for him, but also that decision is about the team/company’s relationship with him. Not about how they run the rest of the business.
The Kroenkes have taken care of Jokić. They drafted him, paid him, gave him opportunities, built around him, have made space for him and his family in the Nuggets organization and daily life. This isn’t special; any team would do this for a player of Jokić’s talent. But those other teams didn’t. The Nuggets did.
The decision to re-sign isn’t personal; it’s business. But business is based on whether you’re satisfied with what the job has offered you, relative to other opportunities. If there were a better league? Jokić would probably leave. If there were tiers of teams, like in a relegation system? Jokić would probably leave.
But there aren’t better opportunities. You can say, “Well, he can go make the same money and work for a better company, like the Lakers.” Sure, but that involves disruption and change, which carry with them risk.
So here’s an example. When Jokić has been asked about seedings or matchups, or about how he feels the team is playing and whether they’re a contender, he defers grumpily. He talks about how “maybe the other team will have an injury, maybe we’ll have injuries, maybe it will be a good matchup, maybe a bad matchup.”
The endpoint is that Joker simply doesn’t believe in projecting the future; it’s too unknowable in the NBA. That’s what he’s learned. So the idea of “I’m going to go to the Lakers, and it’s going to be great!” just isn’t in line with his worldview.
This also extends to potentially positive things. If the Nuggets traded for Luka Doncic, Jokić would be ecstatic to have his friend on the team. He’d love to play with him because of how good he knows Doncic is, but if I asked Jokić how good the Nuggets would be with the two of them, you know what I think his answer would be?
“I don’t know, I guess we’ll see, brother. That’s for you to write about.”
I think trying to psychoanalyze Jokić is a waste of time. He does not wear his heart on his sleeve. He is not an expressive person. He is not someone who can’t help but speak his mind. This makes him inscrutable, but there’s also not a lot of deep scheming there. Joker’s never been revealed as a mastermind or schemer. He doesn’t manipulate teammates, coaches, or even the media for that matter.
Trying to understand what Nikola Jokić wants without being in his inner circle is a waste of time.
But there’s a much greater reason I don’t think he leaves.
He said he’s not.
