Where The Nuggets Stand At Cup Break

Everything looks good, but a lot to tighten up and tough times coming

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We’ve reached a bit of a break in the Nuggets’ schedule with one game this week due to NBA Cup play.

Here’s where I think Denver is on the whole going into Quarter 2 play when the schedule starts to get tougher from a density standpoint.

THE RESUME

• The Nuggets sit tied for third in the West at 17-6, on pace for 60 wins currently

• Their point differential in non-garbage-time per Cleaning the Glass is +8.6, sitting fourth behind the Thunder, Rockets, and Knicks.

  • Notably, CTG provides what’s called “Expected wins” based on point differential. The Nuggets are basically what their record says they are, projected for 59.9 based on that +8.6.

• Denver has had the 16th toughest offensive strength of schedule, 29th toughest defensive strength of schedule, and 28th-ranked overall SOS per DunksAndThrees.com.

  • Don’t sweat this too much. We’re at a point in the season where basically the good teams all have bad SOS and the bad teams all have good SOS. Like so:

Data as of Sunday AM 12/7, prior to Hornets game

• Denver is a stunning 11-2 on the road and an equally stunning 6-4 at home. I legitimately thought after their first two weeks of play that this team could go 38-3 at home, and instead they’ve already lost four.

• The Nuggets are 3-1 against the top 10 teams in offensive rating, 5-2 against top 10 defensive teams, and 4-0 against teams with a top ten overall net rating, per CTG.

• Denver is 8-4 vs. bottom-ten offensive teams, and 8-2 vs. bottom-ten defensive teams. They are 8-3 against bottom-ten teams in point differential. We’ll come back to that.

• The Nuggets are No.1 in schedule-adjusted offense, and No.1 in halfcourt offense per Synergy Sports by a significant margin. They are five points better per 100 possessions in the halfcourt than No.2, the LA Lakers.

• Denver is now 20th in schedule-adjusted defense, and 17th in halfcourt defense.

  • They were 2nd in defense when Christian Braun went down.

• They are 2nd to last in points off turnovers,

• They are allowing the sixth-fewest points off turnovers, the 4th-fewest second-chance points, and the 11th-fewest points in the paint, schedule-adjusted.

  • What this means is that Denver is great at the margin stuff. They don’t get beat for OREB putbacks. They don’t turn the ball over as much as they have in the past; they are 9-1 when they have fewer turnovers than the opponent, winning by 10.5 points per game.

• Here’s the weird one: The Nuggets allow the 10th fewest above-the-break 3-point attempts this season, and the 9th-fewest makes. But they allow the most attempts and makes from the corners. League median is 38%, the Nuggets are allowing 36%.

  • This is a worrisome stat. Those are shots teams want; they’re high percentage. Teams create them easily vs. Denver’s coverage, no matter what they run (zone, drop, hedge).

  • But the benefit of that is their rim rate. Denver allows the 7th-lowest rim rate in the league. They force a high number of mid-range shots (11th), which are less efficient.

• Effectively, Denver does whatever it wants on offense, and if it doesn’t just give the ball away, they’re pretty sound but give up a ton of corner threes.

• They are weirdly inefficient in transition, with a high turnover rate and a low field goal percentage relative to their standards. They’re not bad (12th in transition points per possession), but they are well behind where they should be with how good their firepower is.

THE CONTEXT

My big Nuggets takeaways this season for them on a team level are: