What Makes Denver's Offense A Wagon And Other Nuggets Thoughts

Why the Portland loss was a fluke

Photo by omid roshan on Unsplash

This Nuggets team is going to be an absolute, Grade-A, 100% Certified Fresh, Big Ass WAGON.

They are trucking teams.

Since the opening night loss to the Warriors, Denver’s schedule has been weak. They faced the Suns, Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards, and the New Orleans Pelicans¹ before losing to the Blazers Friday night. You can scroll down for my thoughts on the Portland game.

But if the Nuggets want to get where they want to go, these are the games they need to not just win, but dominate.

The Nuggets weren’t as bad as you’d think against awful teams last year; they were 21-8 against teams with a bottom-10 point differential per Cleaning The Glass. They were 32-11 against teams under .500, right around the same record as Houston and the Clippers.

But they also had to put the pedal down late too often to win those games. They were competitive throughout, even if Denver wound up ahead. They were only 12th in point differential against those teams.

That isn’t happening this year. They are clocking these squads, to the point where Jokic is getting to rest for longer and longer stretches. Jokic is still at 34.3 minutes, Murray at 33.5 because they played the overtime game vs. Golden State and played heavy minutes when they needed to vs. the Wolves.

But they are comfortably outclassing teams they should.

I expect this team to be the No.1 offense in the league.

THE SPLIT CUT NIGHTMARE

This split action is an oldie but a goodie, but with how the Nuggets are spaced this year, it’s a nightmare for teams to deal with it.

Don’t take my word for it, here’s Christian Braun describing it after I asked him to do more than just credit Jamal and Jok for why it works so well.

When CB screens and the defense switches, resulting CB having the defender on his back, it’s over. You’re already dead:

If they don’t switch, you can have breakdowns like this:

As far as the 3-point rate goes, it’s important to understand that my position has never been that Denver has to shoot more 3’s. They just can’t let teams maintain contact on the scoreboard by outpacing Denver in 3’s.

The Nuggets are still bottom-ten in three-point rate this season… because they are 5th in points in the paint and second in fast-break points. They’re creating easy looks consistently.

Now, teams will start to do what they did last year and pack the paint more the more that Cam Johnson and Christian Braun struggle from deep. That’s when you’ll need those shots. But by that time, I’m betting they’ll have settled in.

Denver is No.1 in offensive rating, schedule-adjusted. Maybe they won’t finish No.1, but this offense is going to feel unstoppable for most of the season with normal health parameters.

THE PORTLAND DEBACLE

The good news is that the Nuggets have two losses, one in overtime in the season opener when Jokic missed a floater he makes 8 times out of 10. The other loss featured a series of officiating decisions so bizarre, even I, in my desperate "I am an unbiased observer which gives me credibility”-ness, could not defend.