The Nuggets' Laissez Faire Playoff Strategy
A self-debate about a pretty simple subject
The Nuggets rested everyone on Friday, and it caught everyone else off guard.
In the day since the bench mob’s wildly entertaining win over the Thunder on Friday night at Fan Appreciation night, there’s been a lot of conjecture and guessing, in no small part by yours truly, as to what led to their decision to essentially punt the OKC game which they won anyway because the Thunder had the deeper leg in this one, so to speak.
“They’re JUST prioritizing health, there’s nothing else to it.”
“They don’t want the Wolves in the first round.”
“They want OKC earlier in the second round, especially since it increases the likelihood of Aaron Gordon being healthier.”
“They knew that OKC was not winning that game, no matter what.”
Some of these are true, some of these are false, some of these are half-true.
Here’s what I think after discussions with multiple people.
THE MAIN THING WAS THE MAIN THING
Jamal Murray said after the Grizzlies game that the only thing that matters to this team is health. That’s it.
There’s a confidence in that locker room that might have been missing in February but is back with a vengeance. Sure, they beat a bunch of bad teams to get the win streak started, but they also beat the Spurs.
They know what they are capable of. It’s why the early clutch-time losses didn’t phase them, it’s why they don’t view Minnesota as having had their number — they never have felt that way— and it’s why they don’t see OKC as this juggernaut.
They genuinely think they’re the best team.
But to be that team, they have to be healthy.
They can win on the road, they can beat tougher teams, they can overcome any obstacle, but they have to be healthy to do it.
That’s sound, and safe, and smart.
But I was told it was not the only consideration. Nothing is ever one thing in the NBA. It was health, first, second, third. But after that, there were other choices.
My issues are with the broader context of the decision-making process. The best way for me to do this is to write a little bit of a dialogue with myself, because I am of two minds of it.
LET’S TALK, ME.
ME: “Nikola Jokic played in 13 back-to-backs this season. Jamal Murray in 14. Aaron Gordon in four of 32 games. Cam Johnson in 10.
They played in 3 in 4’s and five in eights and on and on. So why was health not the priority then? Seeding? But you already affirmed that seeding doesn’t matter.”
ALSO ME: “Well, they wanted to avoid the play-in tournament.”
ME: “OK, but even your dumbass was able to determine with a high level of confidence more than a month ago that the Nuggets were not going to be in the play-in tournament given Phoenix’s profile and schedule. They were never really in any serious danger of falling to the play-in.”
ALSO ME: “Better safe than sorry…?”
ME: “They also played in the Memphis game. Their magic number was one. They were going to clinch a playoff spot no matter what. Why play in that game?”
AlSO ME: “The 10-game winning streak! That really mattered to fans and checks off another thing in the history of the Jokic era.”
ME: “Setting aside that a 10-game winning streak isn’t necessarily better than winning 10 of 12 or 14 of 17— especially if your process waivers — is a 10-game winning streak better than homecourt, which they risked in the Friday game by sitting everyone? Is the 10-game winning streak more important than getting into San Antonio’s side of the bracket, increasing your chances of going further in the playoffs?”
ALSO ME: “But they won Friday!”
ME: “Yes, they did, and the guys deserve credit for that, especially David Roddy who hasn’t played much and was terrific. But, and this is important, it doesn’t matter if they won or not because we’re evaluating the choices. Did not playing guys on Friday lower their chances of winning vs. Oklahoma City no matter what OKC’s intentions or rotation was?”
ALSO ME: “Yes, but OKC was not going to let them win that game. They pulled their good players late.”
ME: “The same way the Nuggets will pull Jokic once he hits 15. That’s why Dort played as long as he did: to be eligible for awards. Also, they pulled guys the same way they would in a preseason game. The Thunder didn’t tank that game, the Nuggets won it. But by not playing starters, they still reduced their win probability in that game, which could have resulted in them landing 5th.”
ALSO ME: “Yeah, but seeding doesn’t matter, all that matters is the guys are healthy.”
ME: “OK, but if that’s true what does it matter if they’re in the play-in? If seeding doesn’t matter, then why is 7th or 8th bad?”
ALSO ME: “You could have a bad game and miss the playoffs entirely!”
ME: “Well, first off, if you’re in 7th or 8th, you can lose one and still make it. Second, every 7-seed, which is what they would have been, has made the playoffs; 10-0 in reaching the playoffs. Third, if the idea is that it doesn’t matter when you lose if you don’t win it, then why is the play-in different? My issue is that their logic assumes that some seeding doesn’t matter, which is fine, but not all seeding, and not the best seeding.”
“There’s also the work I’ve done on the history of it. TWO teams in NBA history have won as more than a 3-seed. The Nuggets are absolutely good enough to be the fourth, but that’s a lot of history there. Having to go on the road to face the 1-seed, and then on the road for whoever comes out of the 2-3 semifinals is a pretty tough road.”
AlSO ME: “OK, but you can’t tell me that there is a meaningful difference in one game between the Nuggets and Lakers, especially if they wind up tied.”
