The Denver Nuggets are worse today than they were two days ago. They are worse this year than they were last year. They were worse last year than they were two years before that.
This is the path they’ve chosen.
Peyton Watson was traded Wednesday night to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a multi-team deal that netted the Denver Nuggets a Cleveland Cavaliers 2031 first-round pick and a Sacramento Kings second-round pick.
I had maintained with increasing confidence that the longer the standoff in restricted free agency went on, the more likely it was that he would remain a Nugget.
Denver’s leverage increased when other teams used their cap space.
Denver’s leverage increased when they were forced to go into the second apron to retain Spencer Jones, which meant that possible sign-and-trade options were limited.
Denver’s leverage increased when the Clippers pivoted and signed Bradley Beal.
The Nuggets could have simply held the line on their offer, and even if the result was a very-pissed-off Peyton Watson, they would have retained the asset and the minutes that Watson could provide a team that needs minutes.
It’s rare that a single reason is stated for decisions like these. It’s usually a combination, even by sources who are honest. So we’ll talk about what Watson wanted. We’ll talk about asset recoup. We’ll talk about the difficulty in making deals that returned players. We’ll talk about those things.
But we have to understand that first and foremost this about money.
THE SWEET SONG OF RATIONALIZATION
There will be defenses for this trade.
For starters, the Nuggets are not the only team to avoid the second apron and the repeater. The Boston Celtics won the title in 2024 and have basically shaved off talent bit by bit and ducked the tax (like Denver did) last season. Only the Cleveland Cavaliers were in the second apron to finish last season; everyone else ducked it, with 23 teams avoiding the tax altogether.
“Every team makes financial decisions based on what’s best for business,” which is my whole problem, but we’ll come back to that part.
The Nuggets are still a second-apron team, for now. They’re still projected to be on the hook for $68 million in luxury tax payments currently.1
Watson genuinely was not that important. My analysis on this trade are not based on the idea that Watson was imperative to Denver’s future.
Watson has real All-Star potential. That’s been true since he was drafted. But he’s also a sloppy ballhandler with turnover issues, and his pull-up efficiency wasn't where you want it for a player who wants that type of identity. His defensive impact waned significantly in January when he took on more ballhandling responsibilities.
He had, essentially, one good season where he missed the last month-plus of the regular season and playoffs. He was not a significant rotation player even in 2025.
So letting him go doesn’t mean the Nuggets are missing out on the next superstar next to Jokic. He can be an All-Star but in all likelihood will not be a franchise player. 2
Getting picks back opens up the blessed word “flexibility.” The idea is that they can use the pick, or another pick since this opens up their Stepien-Rule-limited options, to eventually make significant additions to the team.
The fun thing about flexibility is you get credit for it without actually doing anything with it.
Finally, the Nuggets can still say the team is good enough. They have Nikola Jokic. They have Jamal Murray. They have Aaron Gordon. They have Cam Johnson, for now. They have Christian Braun, who they still believe in. They’ll likely add former All-Star DeMar DeRozan. They kept Spencer Jones, added an intriguing player in Alpha Diallo, and drafted two second-rounders for some reason.
Jokic with a capable cast that stays even moderately healthy still probably wins 50 games. The only time he’s failed to do so since 2019 was when his second-highest paid player was out with injury.
They’ll make the playoffs if injury doesn’t absolutely take their knees out again, and will have a fighting chance in a playoff series.
It’s not about what his specific move does. It’s about all the other moves and why this move was made, and what it means for the future.
STAN KROENKE’S SWEET, SWEET CASH
Estimates of how much the Nuggets saved by letting Watson walk, with no returning players, range from $150 million to $161 million.
So that’s nice for the richest landowner in the United States.
The biggest thing for me is that the Nuggets had all the leverage. There was no cap space left. Without the Nuggets’ help, no team could acquire Watson. No one put in an offer sheet for him.
They could just retain him, notably based on this figure at a number below Christian Braun’s $25 million AAV which was such a big contention point, pay the tax, and have the asset.
The only thing forcing the Nuggets to do this was cost. Money. That’s the only reason you do this. Watson is more valuable than a 2031 pick right now. Yes, the wheels can fall off the Cavs, and that can wind up hitting in the lottery and giving the Nuggets a great player.
But Denver honestly doesn’t need a great player in 2031, at least not as much as they need a very good one with upside right now.
I’m already frustrated that there will be an attempt to justify this trade from non-financial terms. Josh Kroenke’s temper has flared in press conferences when plebes in the media room making less than $100k a year ask about the team’s business decisions. We’re all supposed to just nod when billionaires tell us “that’s just business.”
This trade was made to save money, which increases profits. Those savings will not be passed down to ticket holders, parking customers, or concession sales3.
That money saved doesn’t go to Nikola Jokic or any other player
It doesn’t go towards anything. It’s just money on a balance sheet for an asset they paid $450 million for, now valued between $1.9 billion and $7 billion. 4
Good for them.
This gets back to my ongoing rage at how these teams are never treated as community assets anymore. There’s not a responsibility held by the owners to do anything but make money.
You have the greatest player in franchise history, one of the ten best players in league history, and you chose to make the team worse several times to save money.5. You are risking the future of Jokic in Denver and, even worse, not doing everything you can to compete. You are doing everything you can to compete… within the boundaries of what makes financial sense.
That 2031 draft pick could be anything.
It could even be Peyton Watson.
THE LOST VALUE OF WATSON
I pointed out all season how Watson’s game and impact weren’t what it actually looked like on paper. He started the season off-ball as a 3-and-D weapon, and was awesome. He shot the lights out from the corner on spot-ups. He made plays they needed.
Then he got on-ball opportunities, which boosted his base per-game stats while his off-ball efficiency held those numbers up.
But even beyond the fact that Watson could and will likely improve in his on-ball role and better learn to balance energy offensively and defensively, especially after he got paid, there’s still just the minutes.
You needed Peyton Watson’s minutes.
You needed them in games you were fully healthy to get guys a rest and have different skillsets on the floor. You needed him in games you weren’t healthy to fill in and take on responsibilities other players can’t.
If you projected Watson was worth $17 million, you now do not have $17 million worth of production and impact on the floor, at any point. You’re just without it.
From a metrics standpoint, I don’t see Watson as a major downgrade. I have him basically as a value-neutral player.
But the replacement value on him on this roster is a huge downgrade, even if (especially, honestly) they get DeMar DeRozan as a replacement.
The Nuggets don’t need Peyton Watson… until they do. And it is very likely they will next season. You lost a defender when you have almost none, a spot-up shooter when you have almost none, a ballhandler when you have none, and a player with upside when you have none.
Losing him? Fine. But they needed to navigate a deal to extricate a flesh-and-blood player in return. If that meant convincing the team to take Nnaji and get Jaylon Tyson or even a lesser player? Fine. But walking away with nothing but picks was grievous.
HOW TO LOSE YOUR GREATEST FRANCHISE PLAYER IN 12 MONTHS
I have stated and maintained why I think Nikola Jokic does not leave in free agency next summer, and this doesn’t change that. If my argument is “he’s true to his word” and his word did not contain “I want to be Nugget forever as long as they do not botch the Peyton Watson restricted free agency” then I would adapt on that.
For now, I still believe Jokic re-signs.
But if you wanted to lose Nikola Jokic? The last three years are how you would do it.
