The Flexibility Problem

Why Denver can't fix what's ailing them

TL;DR:

• Denver lost the Cleveland game in Jokic-and-not-starters minutes

• Russ-Straw-Peyton does not work together even if they work together

• The roster salary construction leaves zero flexibility

• Not leaving outs is what really hurts Calvin Booth

Denver is 11-9 and the only team with a positive net rating (points for vs. against per 100 possessions) with a top-10 Strength of Schedule.

It just doesn’t feel like that.

The Nuggets’ loss to the Cavaliers Thursday night shouldn’t feel demoralizing. The Cavs are the best team in the league by record and point differential, have bigs to battle Nikola Jokic, and shooters galore. It’s a tough matchup on the road and a game the Cavaliers were favored to win.

It feels so much worse for Denver’s hopes of reaching where they want to go.

WHAT THE GAME WASN’T

This wasn’t about Jamal Murray’s struggles; Murray was fine in this game which is an upgrade from many of his games this season. He finished with 19 points on 16 shots, along with six assists. They were -10 in his minutes, but everyone was negative except Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Christian Braun.

This wasn’t about no one helping Jokic; Porter had 24 points, Gordon had 18.

It wasn’t even about the non-Jokic minutes. Jokic was -8, Denver lost by 12. A -4 in the nine minutes Jokic didn’t play is about what you would expect. It’s not good. It’s just not awful like it normally is.

WHAT THE GAME WAS

Here’s what actually decided the game, via Pivot Fade:

Four minutes and fifty seconds. They lost it by 10. The Cavaliers scored 1.4 points per possession, Denver scored 0.7. That’s your ballgame. I’m not kidding, everything else was within range of a win.

Jokic and Murray together this season have still been dynamite despite Murray’s struggles. This is an important point: Jokic and Murray together are +11.9. They beat teams by double digits for every 100 possessions they play together.

Jokic without Murray is only +8.03. Murray without Jokic is -0.3 Yes, Jokic is awe-inspiring, amazing, and the MVP so far, having one of the best starts for any player in NBA history.

But also, the Murray-Jokic minutes aren’t down even with Murray struggling. The Murray non-Jokic minutes aren’t bad enough to think it’s the problem.

THE PROBLEM MINUTES

Here’s the combo that’s the problem:

Russell Westbrook
Julian Stawther
Peyton Watson

That combo without Jokic are -23.9 in net rating in 100 minutes. That’s an abomination. It’s a travesty. It’s a traveshamockery. They’ve gotten MURDERED in those minutes. But that’s not actually what worries me.

It’s this.

In 56 minutes, that trio with Joker are -17.

When you have a combo with over 20 minutes played that loses its minutes with Joker on the floor, when Joker is playing like this? That’s a canary in the mine.

Joker-Strawther-Peyton is positive.

Joker-Russ-Peyton is positive.

Joker-Russ-Strawther is slightly negative (-3.3).

Joker-Strawther is positive.

Joker-Watson is positive.

Joker-Russ is hugely positive (+23).

It’s the combo of them.

Now, the answer here is that if they are playing with starters, it works. Strawther, for all his troubles, can work if he’s next to better defenders and shooters alongside Jokic. Watson, for all his offensive limitations, works if he’s next to Joker and other creators.

But when the Nuggets try and get away with a few minutes without the starters, everything falls apart, even if Jokic is on the floor.

That last part is the critical part.

In the last six minutes of the first quarter with Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets have been outscored by 17 points. They’re better to end the 3rd quarter. Overall, in the last six minutes of the first and third when Joker plays mostly bench minutes, the Nuggets are +6 per 100 possessions.

Guess what? That’s not good enough to overcome the bad bench without Joker. So if the Nuggets are down to start the 1st, it gets worse, meaning the starters have to dig out of a deeper hole before the half and into the third. Even if they play well in the third, that only gets them to even a lot of the time.

THE LACK OF OPTIONS

On a normal roster construction, the answer would be to go deeper into the rotation. Find a third wing to sub for Strawther, even if Strawther gets a few more minutes with the starters. Find another forward to spell Watson. Maybe even add another point guard to play Russ next to him so that you can find a way to get above water in the Russ minutes.

Not only do the Nuggets not have those players… they don’t have the ability to add them.

Zeke Nnaji, should he opt into the final year of his deal, is due $8 million a year through 2028. Reallllllllly think about how bad that extension looks right now. (Lot of time for it to turn around, which is good, because it needs to turn way around.)

Jalen Pickett is fully guaranteed at over $2.5 million per year through 2026.

Tyson Hunter is fully guaranteed at just under $2 million through 2026.

Russell Westbrook has a player option for 2025-26, but you can probably move him if you need to. Dario Saric has a $5.3 million player option for next season, and you probably can’t right now.

The options on those contracts are honestly what take them from movable and valuable to hindrances.

But don’t worry, they can just attach picks! Except… no, no they can’t.

Their 2025 pick goes to Orlando, their 2027 goes to OKC (with conditions), their 2029 goes to OKC (with conditions). Their 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2023, and 2031 second-round picks are also promised away.

The key here is that there is no way to make moves around the margins without trading a starter.

• Jamal Murray is not tradeable due to his extension

• Ditto for Aaron Gordon

• Michael Porter Jr. is tradeable, and that’s the best available move despite him being the second-best offensive player so far this season, but three back surgeries are going to make finding buyers difficult

Denver locked itself into a corner with this roster. The fully guaranteed deals for second-round players means you can’t swap in and out. Zeke Nnaji’s fall from being a “maybe” to a “definitely not” playable player means that the fifth-highest paid player on the roster is immovable.

If you’re going to be top-heavy in the modern NBA, you have to have highly interchangeable parts. The Nuggets have rusted parts stuck together with corrosion and the gears are grinding against one another.

You can’t replace a part and try something different because the mechanism is both tightly constructed and stuck together.

The engine of the Nuggets is running better than ever. But the rest of the vehicle isn’t just clunking; but it’s nearly impossible to get into working order.

Denver’s not broken. They are likely to make the playoffs and may finish with 45-50 wins. The vehicle’s still moving down the highway. But to get to the speed and make the trip all the way to another Larry O’Brien, the front office is going to have to make some brutal decisions to get bold or maybe worse… take a step backwards in-season to take a step forward this summer.