The Dread Webbing Of Nuggets Present And Future
Plus, a practice facility update!
Couple of things to hit on for the weekend.
WHY MUST WE LIE?
In surprising news, social media will try to lie to you. The latest has been this week’s effort to try to convince the general public that Peyton Watson’s time in Denver is coming to an end. Why? No reason, actually. Wishcasting by his representation, mostly.
“As time drags on, the chances of Peyton Watson returning to the Nuggets decreases,” says Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints.1
“Either they’re going to trade him, or he’s going to (sign the qualifying offer),” said Shams Charania of ESPN.2
The thing is… none of this is true. The longer that time drags on, the higher the chances are that Watson remains with the Nuggets. The most likely outcome is NOT that they trade Watson (though they are open to that possibility) and NOT that he signs the qualifying offer.
But if you’re Watson’s representatives, or an associate, it benefits you to project that he has some level of leverage here. The alternative is that Klutch has — once again — overpursued a deal with a Restricted Free Agent’s incumbent squad and found themselves so far apart that it leads to acrimony and fake leverage that drags into September.
And so the leaks continue, suggesting that the teams that are interested in signing Watson have leverage. For example, the Bucks, reportedly, will not include a first-round pick for Watson.
That’s totally understandable; Watson has never been tagged as a starter, only filled in due to injury. His breakout season was last year, a season that saw a huge jump in his spot-up shooting percentage and which was cut short by a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the postseason which would have been an excellent evaluation of Watson as a 16-gamer with the expansion of his on-ball game.3
However, if teams aren’t going to meet Denver’s standard of return for Watson… he’s not going anywhere. They have no reason to agree to a deal here.
They’ve offered what they feel is a fair offer given the negotiating position of both sides (even if it’s well short of his market value) and teams can either clear cap space to sign him to an offer sheet and hope the Nuggets don’t match, or they can meet Denver’s price for return… or Watson can hang out in limbo.
That’s just where we are.
None of this is to say that the Nuggets won’t trade Watson. If the Bucks offer Jaime Jaquez and requisite pick compensation? They might take the opportunity to pick up an asset, add a ballhandler, and save money? They might take it.
However, the idea that the Nuggets won’t accede to Klutch’s demands so the Nuggets will trade him is just not where reality lies.
The qualifying offer is a fun nuclear option, but it risks three things:
Injury, which would devastate his value
The Nuggets simply not playing him and keeping him in the role he filled in 2024-25 as a bench spot player because they have no reason to invest in his future if he’s going to leave
It outright costs the guaranteed money that even if the Nuggets start at mid-level for AAV in the first two seasons is still $30 million
Certainly, Watson can bet on himself. Other great luminaries like Cam Thomas and Nerlens Noel (ask him how his Klutch experience went) have opted to go that route and it’s worked out great.4
None of this is fair. I’ll reiterate that restricted free agency is unethical and Watson should have been free to pursue the most money a team would pay for his services at the end of his contract. But I’m not going to abide by the cute media games power brokers want to play at the expense of fans’ emotions.
And it worked! Even some local authorities spoke as if these reports had any meaning whatsoever.
But you shouldn’t fall for this nonsense.
AN UNCOMFORTABLE PROGNOSTICATION
I have a prediction.
The Nuggets will only employ, at most, four of the following players at the beginning of the 2027-28 season (next year):
Nikola Jokic
Jamal Murray
Aaron Gordon
Christian Braun
Cam Johnson
Peyton Watson
They will either keep Watson, trade Johnson, and deal one of Murray, Gordon, or Braun before the deadline OR move Watson and trade one of Murray, Gordon, Braun, or Johnson before the deadline OR lose Jokic and then all bets are off OR keep Watson, keep Johnson, and deal one before the deadline OR keep Watson, keep Johnson, and deal two of Murray, Gordon, and Braun between January and August.
There’s a kind of dread seeping over the team in regards to the reality of the CBA, akin to what the Bucks went through, only they were the first real contender with a top-five player to experience it. Now we know what it looks like. The players you built around get older, and as they get older they make more, which becomes more restrictive with every passing season.
The asset cupboard becomes more bare because any mistake5 leaves you with a significant dent in your options.
The only real way to pivot towards a team with runway in the end of the Jokic era is to move their larger contracts for several smaller ones and picks, then use those assets to trade back up for better, cheaper stars.
But even if the Nuggets don’t go that route, the financial realities are what they are. The Nuggets face a tax bill somewhere north of a quarter of a billion dollars. That shouldn’t matter. If Stan Kroenke is cash poor, he should sell some of the 2.7 million acres (larger than Yellowstone National Park, by the way) to finance the bill.
But he won’t.
So either the Nuggets get ahead of the problem by trading a beloved player who contributed to the title and pivot, or they slowly bleed talent and lose more, with no real way to replace them.
It’s what has led me to believe the best way forward is by trading Jamal Murray. Not because Murray has disappointed like so many Jokic stans feel; instead I thought Murray legitimately battled and just missed shots in the playoff series. He led last year like the team has needed, from start to finish. He doesn’t deserve to be traded from a team and city he loves.
But if I believe you can’t build a top-15 defense with Jokic at 32 or older and Murray at 31 or older — and I don’t — then trading Murray is the best way to get the most talent back and reset the books.
