The Disturbing Truth About Denver's Defense
Reinforcements may not save the day
When the Nuggets started off the season with the No.2 defense, we all knew that was not going to last.
This is not a defensive roster.
Aaron Gordon is a plus defender when matched on big, strong scoring forwards like Kawhi Leonard, but struggles against speed on the perimeter.
Christian Braun does great against rangy, athletic scoring wings like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but struggles getting over screens.
Peyton Watson is the team’s best screen navigator and does well defending pick and rolls because of that, but struggles when matched up against powerful scoring forwards.
Spencer Jones has shown the capacity to guard pretty much every type of player, but is still green and doesn’t get a favorable whistle, especially against all the elite matchups he’s faced.
Cam Johnson is an average defender, Bruce Brown is pesky off-ball but prone to lapses and undersized, Jalen Pickett is strong but short and not fast, Jamal Murray has to conserve his energy trying to get over screens, Jonas Valanciunas is slow-footed and lacks burst for rim protection.
Joker is Joker. You know the deal there.1
But for the first 12 games, Denver was downright elite defensively. Even with some slippage, they would still be good fully healthy. Then the injuries began as the season started to become a grind, and suddenly the defense fell off the earth.
I’ve been operating under the hopeful impression that fully healthy, with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun available, the Nuggets’ defense can be “good enough” to win a title. That impression was mostly buoyed by this:
Those numbers, courtesy of DataBallr.com, are 50% 3-point luck adjusted. So they should reflect a defensive reality where, even with 3-point luck adjusted, Denver is a decent enough defensive team at a 113 defensive rating with Jokic, Braun, and Gordon.
