The Cam Conundrum, Himmy Hardaway, And Ryan Bowen's Gold Rush

Solving puzzles with patience, or not.

Photo by Edge2Edge Media on Unsplash

What to think about with the Nuggets this week, plus my preseason interview with Grand Rapids Gold coach Ryan Bowen.

THE CAM CONUNDRUM

The Nuggets are awesome.

The Nuggets with Cam Johnson are awesome.

Cam Johnson is not awesome.

So there are a few ways to look at this:

• “The Nuggets are +8.1 with Cam on the floor vs. starters and Cam’s not even shooting well yet!”

• “The Nuggets are +39 without Johnson! Imagine how good they’d be if they started Timmy!”

• “How in the hell are they winning the non-Jokic Cam minutes if Cam has been bad?”

The most worrying outcome is that maybe Cam and Jokic just aren’t a fit. I look at plus minus not as a determination of how well a player plays, but if things work with them on or off the floor. It’s too early to determine Cam and Jokic don’t work together, and they do work together, just not by as much as you would like.

For comparison’s sake:

That’s not damning for Johnson, they’re winning by 8 per 100 and they’re facing the toughest matchups because Cam is playing mostly against starters. But it isn’t great.

In reality, much of this is just shot variance.

For example, with Johnson on the floor facing five starters for the opponent, Johnson has a 57% expected eFG% per PBPSTats.com. He’s creating and taking good shots and missing.

The players always think it’s hilarious when we ask them about players like Cam struggling or if they need to talk to them to keep them up.

Jamal Murray was basically like “Do you guys think he forgot how to shoot?”

But the pressure is there, and more than anything, I see a player in Johnson who very badly wants this to work. He’s not frustrated with his role or wanting the ball more, he’s not upset with what he’s being asked to do. He’s trying desperately to do it and every miss he makes comes with a reaction from him.

Relaxing is difficult when it feels like you’re struggling in the first three weeks on the job.

David Adelman said it was going to take Johnson about ten games to feel comfortable and he’d probably struggle until then. My bet is 45 days, with the first week of December when things start to turn. It won’t be sudden. It’ll be “You know who quietly had a good game tonight?” and then a loud bad game and then another pretty good game, and then another, and then by January it will look different.

What sucks is that Johnson is doing things that help Denver. He moves the ball, and not just in a “immediately pass it after catching it.” His ability to attack closeouts and then move the ball to the other side, his ability to pressure and kick, his defensive closeouts, all these things are valuable.

They just don’t help the scoreboard as much as making shots.

HIM HARDAWAY JR.

But in the meantime, thank goodness for Tim Hardaway Jr.

I want to single out a specific play that shows THJ’s value on this team. It’s not even a set; it’s an offensive rebound, random play.