In Repair: How The Nuggets Are Holding It Together
Joker returns soon...
Thoughts on the injuries, Spencer Jones, and ugh, the tax as we head into what is likely the last week without Joker (from this injury, knock on wood).
IN REPAIR
I ran down my thoughts on the injury updates from Adelman on Tuesday night for our Locked on Nuggets Everydayers club in our supercast and on Subtext. 1
We’re starting to see that stuff pay off. Jonas Valanciunas has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game vs. the Wizards. If he doesn’t return tonight, expect him back on the road trip.
When Adelman said “he looks good, he feels good,” that’s when I knew he was close.
I get people freaking out over Jonas coming back before Joker, but the injuries just aren’t the same.
As for Joker, Adelman said the problem is that they are up and down. One day he feels great, the next he feels not great. They’re trying to get him to a place where he feels the same every day.
There’s a misconception among fans that the training staff decides if a player plays. This is true for some players. Basically, the training staff’s influence scales with the player’s earnings and importance.
If you’re a two-way player? They get to decide. If you’re a rookie? They get to decide. If you’re a veteran on a minimum? They get to say a lot. If you’re a role player bench guy, they get a big say. If you’re a role player starter? It’s 50/50.
If you’re a star? A max star? The franchise? You get the say.
But it’s a process, and Joker will take the advice he’s given. To an extent.
I’m still of the belief he sneaks back in on the road trip, probably the Memphis game. One game early, to get his legs under him before the Detroit game begins a hellish stretch for the Nuggets in terms of opponent strength.
Adelman equated Cam Johnson and Jokic on timeline, but it does sound like Jokic is at least feeling better than Johnson. Johnson’s done mobility workouts, but as of Tuesday, hadn’t begun contact. The Nuggets have not said if Joker is playing contact.
Note: the training staff, and thereby Adelman, would say Joker has to play contact before he returns. This is a lie, based on the things I explained above. Joker’s back when he feels like he’s back. He’ll take the staff under advisement, but the players know their bodies.
So it looks like this:
Jonas back on the road trip after a good pre-game workout
Jokic back by next Friday at the latest (speculatively, he could have a setback)
Cam Johnson back in the first week of February, worst case after All-Star
THE HIGH COST OF LIVING
Adelman hasn’t been subtle about his worry over what’s happened over the last month.
He’s had to run Jamal Murray into the ground to keep the team afloat. Honestly, if they had won fewer games, it might have been easier. If it doesn’t matter if you play Murray or not, you’re going to lose, then you can justify sitting him. But they’ve not only won more games than they’ve lost, but they’ve been in every game outside of the Hornets game.
I will always and forever go back to the 2022 season. Will Barton was playing some of the best basketball of his career in November and December, helping Denver stay in playoff seeding. But the cost of it was that Will was completely and utterly toast by the time March came around. He was a genuinely negative-impact player at that point, and the disappointing playoff performance sealed his exit from the team, and he was out of the league soon after.
I don’t think that happens to Murray; he’s a different player at a different age and much better. But I worry not only about Murray, but also about AG playing as much as he has with the coaching staff’s skepticism about DaRon Holmes. I worry about Tim Hardaway Jr. logging this many minutes, even if my concern is less there. I worry about Peyton Watson playing not only more minutes but a way higher usage role.
The Nuggets weathered this injury storm in incredible fashion. I said they need to win four games by next Tuesday. They have won seven with six days to spare.
However, they have to absolutely crush February and March to put themselves in a position to back off the throttle for the last 15 games of the season.
GET THEE SPENCE
Spencer Jones has seven games left on his two-way deal that he can play with the Nuggets before he would have to head back to Grand Rapids (or more likely, just sit around inactive). before being converted to a full-time guaranteed contract. 2
Jones is going to get the contract. They know they need him. He can shoot (we’ll come back to that), he’s smart, he plays extremely hard and has the kind of frame that they need for a lot of matchups.
The question will be when.
Here’s the sequence they need:
